COVID-19. How does it affect footwear sales in different countries?
The survey and analysis carried out by the specialized site WORLD FOOTWEAR, on the consequences of the Coronavirus in the retail sales circuit of witness markets, provides important information on the evolution and influence of the health crisis, allowing to make some projections about the immediate future of this segment, and the sector in general.
The report details that with almost 180 million people infected worldwide, out of a total population of 7.73 billion, at the end of May 2021, and with a vaccination plan underway in several countries, the virus is still in force. Thus, familiar words that affected our routines in 2020 and continue in 2021 persist in our usual conversations. They are: pandemic, closures, quarantines, protocols, sanitary measures, movement restrictions, social distancing, etc.
Recently, new waves of infections hit different countries and regions, causing new closures and restrictions. Averaging 2021, the luck is diverse in each of them, depending on their capacity in the rate of vaccination and their epidemiological status.
The European Union aims for 70% of its population to be vaccinated by the end of the summer -September 2021-, while the United States has plans to end the vaccination of 70% of its adult inhabitants at the beginning of July 2021. In this international context, Japan is one of the furthest behind, and has only covered 1.1% of its vaccinated population, the lowest within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, according to the Bloomberg report.
Observing this scenario, we can analyze what has happened and is happening in different witness markets, which are counted as references for the international footwear commercialization chain.
After going through a period of relative normality in September and October, in November 2020 footwear retail sales plummeted across the country. New restrictions were established with a view to recovering in the Christmas holidays, however they did not result positive, and consumption at the beginning of 2021 entered an intermittent cycle of permanent rises and falls, which only evidenced a slight rebound in March 2021.
The current moment is one of uncertainty and the hope is the advancement of vaccination in order to achieve greater tranquility and thus reestablish consumer confidence.
The biggest unknown among traders, is to know, after having had a bad year 2020 and if the waves of infections continue, if they will be able to resist in 2021.
After the initial impact of the pandemic in the first months of 2020, footwear retail sales in Germany appeared to be manageable for most of the year. However, in the last two months of 2020, the story changed radically and sales plummeted sharply. To such an extent that many commercial circuits had to close their doors, with the consequent growth of online sales channels, without compensating for the results obtained by physical points.
Currently, the good news comes from the confidence indicators, where German consumers believe that the risks of COVID-19 will gradually decrease, and pessimism is fading. Traders think the same. Due to the evolution of recent months, the question is asked: Will confidence defeat COVID-19 before the vaccine?
After the poor results of 2020, the footwear and clothing sales index, only in March 2021 could exceed the figures of the previous year. Importers are not yet convinced that this is a sustained recovery. The positive is the indicators of confidence in consumers and merchants that seem to be moving away from pessimism. However, everything remains very fragile, especially as the state of emergency has widened, and it may be too early for traders to get excited.
Footwear retail sales rates, in the first months of 2021, show resistance to return to pre-pandemic levels, even when there was some recovery during the second half of 2020. Behind the worsening commercial conditions were the new pandemic waves registered in Spain in November 2020 and again in January and February 2021.
The effects on the retail sectors have been notable, although not as severe as in the first wave of 2020.
The positive signal is given by online commerce, which has been gaining share since September 2020. It is an alternative that many stores have to switch to the virtual sales channel and offset their losses. Consequently, from this situation, there is concern about the disappearance of physical stores.
Averaging the year, in Spain the epidemiological level was controlled, which generated an incipient optimism from consumers and traders. The next few months will be key in the development of the market.
When the COVID-19 wave hit the UK after the New Year, a new lockdown was imposed, slowing retail footwear sales.
At present, an interesting fact comes from the consumer confidence indicator, which in the last months of March and April 2021 has produced positive rates. Now the expectations go through the success of vaccination and the consolidation of online commerce, which together can reverse the fall in footwear sales. There are generalized coincidences in the commercial sector, that in the coming months there will be a greater demand for footwear.
The case to review is the impact that the virus has had on physical stores, since many of them will probably not reopen their doors.
Retail sales in shoe stores started the year on a downward trend, ending a recovery recorded in the final months of 2020.
Retail sales in shoe stores started the year on a downward trend, ending a recovery recorded in the final months of 2020.
E-commerce is in an upward cycle as it continues to gain market share. However, in the commercial sector as a whole, this result is in doubt, because this growth is taking place at the expense of physical stores.
In recent weeks, it is perceived that consumer confidence tends to increase, based on the effectiveness of mass vaccination, which will ultimately control COVID-19.
Source: World Footwear Report
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